The Secret Sauce
Key Features/Components
- For position players the proposed figure of merit (Hall of Maximum Achievement Score- HOMAS) is primarily based on a combination of peak period Baseball Reference WAA (Wins Above Average) and a peak period OPS+ and a novel Rfield+ stat. Additional points are awarded or subtracted for extended or shortened peak longevity.
- A WAA peak season for a position player is a WAA of 2 or greater (rounded from 1.95). This means the player was responsible for two wins more than the average player for that season.
- A OPS+ or Rfield+ peak season for a position player is an OPS+ or Rfield+ of 124 or greater with at least 199 plate appearance, 99 plate appearances for Negro Leaguers. Note: Qualifying on either OPS+ or Rfield+ results in both stats being used as part of that peak year performance and in eventually determining an average peak score, called Peak O&D.
- For positions players the offensive and defensive components are weighted 80-20 respectively in determining a final combo peak offensive & defensive score.
- For pitchers the proposed figure of merit is based on a combination of Baseball Reference peak period pitching WAA and peak ERA+ stats, again with points awarded or subtracted for extended or shortened peak longevity. Only pitchers’ pitching WAA is considered. Offensive contributions are ignored. If the pitcher was also a qualifying position player then his positional WAA was considered separately.
- A WAA peak season for a pitcher is a WAA of 1.5 or greater (rounded from 1.45). This means the pitcher was responsible for one and a half wins more than the average pitcher for that season. A lower qualifying WAA for pitchers than position player WAA was selected to enable more relief pitchers to qualify for HOMA consideration.
- A ERA+ peak season for a pitcher is an ERA+ of 124 or greater with at least 49 innings pitched, 39 innings for Negro Leaguers. Some ERA+ scaling adjustments are made for modern era relief pitchers (era starting in the late 50’s) in the final HOMA score calculations.
- A 20% penalty is levied in the Peak WAA calculations for confirmed or strongly suspected PED users.
- The Rfield+ stat is a creation related to defensive runs saved. The yearly major league average of zero results in a 100 Rfield+. Then scores are determined similar to how OPS+ and ERA+ are calculated.
- To complete a players defensive score the weighted average of games played during the peak years is determined to award a position score. This is then averaged with the Rfield+ score.
- In accordance with their recognition as a true major league, performance statistics of players in those recognized Negro Leagues are fully integrated into all analyses.
- To account for shorter NGL seasons while still trying to allow for meaningful performance comparisons methodological projections are made based on data for current known games .
- To qualify for HOMA consideration, a position player had to have at least 5 peak WAA seasons and 6 peak of either OPS+ or Rfield+ seasons. For Negro Leaguers the plus categories years were set to 5 peak years.
- To qualify for HOMA consideration, a pitcher had to have at least 5 peak WAA seasons and 5 peak ERA+ seasons. For Negro Leaguers the ERA+ category years were set to 4 peak years.
- Overall as of 6-22-04, 416 retired players (280 position players and 136 pitchers) qualified as HOMA candidates with Bullet Rogan being the only player to qualify in both categories.
Calculating the Various Selected Metrics
The major criterion in evaluating exceptional player performance is finding a measurement that relates to long term peak performance. The WAA metric is almost ideal as it combines offense, base-running and defense for a position player and a pure pitching component for a pitcher to give a measure of a player’s contribution/worth. The higher a player’s score over a longer period defines excellence. In determining the actual score for this first component, the number of seasons that a player achieved a WAA score of two or more (1.5 for pitchers) is determined. The total WAA score during that period is summed and divided by the number of peak seasons to determine a Peak WAA Score. In addition an extra .075 points is awarded for each of the peak seasons exceeding eight seasons while .100 is subtracted when the total peak seasons is less than 8. Thus the formula for this metric is:
Peak War Score = Accumulated Peak War/Peak War Seasons x .075 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players exceeding eight peak seasons)
Peak War Score = Accumulated Peak War/Peak War Seasons x .100 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players with less than eight peak seasons)
If it was determined that a player regularly used PED’s at some point in his career or was highly suspected a 20% penalty was subtracted from the the equation.
To determine a relevant peak WAA scores for Negro Leaguers, projections of seasonal WAA values were done. For each Negro League team and season the team leader in games played was determined. That number of games was used to determine that team’s (and players’) multiplier to reach 145 games. For players qualifying in this evaluation, their seasonal WAA was determined using this distinct multiplier. If a player was with multiple teams, a weighted multiplier was determined. The multiplier limit was set at 6. There was also an upper limit set for pitchers innings as some teams with very intermittent schedules used a very limited number of pitchers.
The second criterion selected for HOMAS score is a rate based metric that is principally related to a position players overall ability to hit (OPS+) and defend (Rfield+) and pitchers overall ability to pitch (ERA+). The OPS+ and Rfield+ statistics measure comparative offensive and defensive production across eras while ERA+ does the same for pitchers.
To complete the defensive measurement, a weighted position multiplier for games played at the top three positions for their peak period is calculated. For Negro Leaguers just their primary position weighting for their peak period is used. The weightings (relative to a DH’s of 1.0) were: shortstops and catchers 1.3; second basemen 1.25, for centerfielders and third basemen 1.2. For right fielders it was 1.15 with leftfielders and first basemen at 1.1.
The final position player peak OPS+ and Rfield+ score formula is:
Peak (Off & Def)= (.8*Peak OPS+ Avg + .2 *Peak Def Avg) x .075 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players exceeding eight peak seasons)
Peak (Off & Def)= (.8*Peak OPS+ Avg + .2 *Peak Def Avg) x .100 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players under eight peak seasons)
The final pitcher peak ERA+ score formula is:
Peak (ERA+)= Peak ERA+ Avg x .075 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players exceeding eight peak seasons)
Peak (ERA+)= Peak ERA+ Avg x .100 x (Peak War Seasons – 8) (for players under eight peak seasons)
The HOMAS (Hall of Maximum Achievement Score) metric for position players is then a sum of 70% Peak WAA Score and 30% Peak (Off & Def) Score. For pitchers it is the sum of the weighted Peak Pitching WAA and Peak ERA+ scores in a two to one ratio. A final score of 99 is the threshold for HOMA entry. The HOMA site originator chose to be generous to those on the 100 point cusp.
There is one further modification of peak ERA+ for modern era relief pitchers. First, the proportion of games in which these pitchers were relievers is determined. Then this proportion receives a 30% reduction on their yearly ERA+ values for each season. This adjustment is done to account for relievers entering games with already one or two outs at the beginning of their appearance.
For the HOMA-C (championship) scores the weightings were 90-10 between regular season and championship play. Champioship play was defined as the individual league championships and the World Series. Players were given points if they were on the team roster at the close of the regular season and their team proceeded to make it to a championship series. Making it to a championship earned 2 points. Winning a league championship earned 8 points. Winning the World Series earned an additional 4 points. Winning a championship or World Series MVP earned another 10 points. This result was then appropriately scaled.
The final number of HOMA enshrinees is typically a bit more than actual HOFers enshrined during the Live Ball era (approximately 20). This is due to several PED players qualifying for enshrinement despite the 20% peak WAA penalty assessed them. Also as HOMA does not have a 5 year waiting period, several of those type players were immediately enshrined upon their retirement. Additionally several Negro Leaguers who only recently became statistically notable are now in HOMA.